Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

0.04 — no because the 7-day MA threshold of 60 requires roughly a 6-10x sustained increase from current ~11/day levels, and the binding physical constraint (uncharted mines), unsigned deal framework, insurance reinstatement lag, and 7-day averaging structure collectively make this arithmetically near-impossible within 25 days even under optimistic diplomatic scenarios.

We forecast 4 percent, down from a prior of 15 percent. The Polymarket implied probability of ~28.5% for end-of-May normalization appears substantially overpriced. The 7-day moving average on IMF Portwatch sits at approximately 6-7 ships per day; the threshold is 60. Bridging this 10x gap within 25 days requires a signed deal, verified mine clearance, insurance reinstatement, and sustained 60+ daily transits for a full week — each step operating on independent timelines measured in weeks to months. The dominant outcome is continued dual blockade through May 31 with marginal traffic changes. A secondary outcome involves partial reopening where daily transits climb to 20-45 but the 7-day MA never reaches 60. The physical mine constraint is the most load-bearing blocker: Iran has lost track of mines it planted, and commercial insurers will not cover vessels transiting an unmined strait on political assurances — particularly after the CMA CGM San Antonio was attacked on May 5. The IRGC's pattern of bad-faith compliance (April 8 ceasefire violated within hours, April 17 reopening produced no traffic increase, May 6 "new protocols" announced one day after an attack) means commercial actors will heavily discount new diplomatic signals. Trump's pause of Project Freedom removes the one mechanism that could force traffic upward without Iranian cooperation. All three major actors have revealed incentives converging on the status quo: Iran preserves its bargaining chip, the US maintains port blockade leverage, and commercial shippers avoid mine-strike losses. The probability is genuinely very low, and this is not a case where cross-actor dynamics reveal an underweighted pathway. The move down from 15% reflects the CMA CGM attack reinforcing bad-faith patterns, the Project Freedom pause, and the prior's overweighting of tail scenarios requiring implausible conjunctions.