Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?

Settled Oct 22Updated 40d ago24h volume $647

Market100¢

Q forecast93¢

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Two consecutive hikes need time to work, so a Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting is highly likely.

The Bank has already delivered consecutive hikes, and officials have emphasized that their effects need time to emerge. September inflation broadly matched the Bank’s earlier outlook, while slower Seoul apartment-price growth and declining overall household lending reduce the urgency for immediate action. Inflation remains elevated, underlying price pressure is strengthening and export growth is robust, so another hike remains a credible alternative. Even so, waiting one meeting to assess transmission before considering further tightening is highly likely.

Points to YES

The effects of the consecutive July and August hikes have not fully appeared, supporting a pause for assessment.
On September 10, Deputy Governor Park Jong-woo said the consecutive July-August hikes were front-loaded and would take time to affect the economy.
September inflation broadly matched the Bank’s August outlook rather than delivering a fresh upside shock.
On October 2, State Street said September inflation broadly matched the Bank’s August outlook and supported an unchanged October Base Rate.
Cooling housing and aggregate household lending reduce the immediate financial-stability case for another hike.
In September, outstanding household loans at five major lenders fell by 1.28 trillion won, their first monthly decline in six months.

Points to NO

Inflation remains elevated and underlying price pressure is broadening, giving the Board reason to tighten again.
On October 2, the Bank assessed that core inflation would continue rising because of cost-shock pass-through and growing demand-side pressures.
Strong growth and accelerating financial-stability risks leave further rate increases firmly under consideration.
The Bank’s September 10 report expected robust export-led growth, prolonged above-target inflation and accelerating Seoul housing prices and household-loan growth.

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