Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO40¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin remains just below $78,000 after repeated failed holds above it, so a $78,000 September 3 settlement is a meaningful underdog.

The visible evidence leans against YES: same-day readings remained below $78,000, and recent moves above the threshold quickly reversed. Bitcoin is nevertheless close enough that an ordinary intraday move could carry it across before settlement, keeping the outcome live. Selling pressure around recent highs and limited time to establish a buffer make a settlement at or above $78,000 the less likely outcome.

Points to NO

Same-day trading had not cleared the threshold in the reported early session.
At 04:03 UTC on September 3, Coinbase Pro BTC/USD was $77,731.28, while the reported daily high was $77,877.20.
Recent moves above $78,000 have failed to hold.
Bitcoin traded above $78,000 on September 2 but ended the day just above $77,200 after losing 0.8%.
Profitable holders create additional selling pressure when Bitcoin revisits recent highs.
On September 2, Glassnode said 68% of circulating supply was in profit near $78,000 and assessed that this created more potential selling liquidity.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is close enough to the threshold for a modest intraday rise to produce YES.
On September 3, the settlement-basis price was $77,932.69, just 0.09% below $78,000.
Recent spot-Bitcoin ETF demand provides some underlying buying support.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $216.7 million during the latest completed session reported on September 2.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.