Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+59%$100 paper stake

Kalshi63¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES63¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

WTI is trading above $84.99 amid renewed regional strikes, so an October-contract settlement above the threshold is likely.

The settlement-basis price is 86.1765, giving WTI a modest cushion above the $84.99 threshold after renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted oil. Constrained Hormuz traffic and depleted inventories support that premium. However, Friday’s $83.40 settlement, recovering Gulf exports and limited assessed upside show how quickly prices could retreat. An above-threshold settlement is likely with meaningful uncertainty because the cushion is narrow and sharp moves remain plausible before the fixing.

Points to YES

The October WTI contract has moved back above the settlement threshold.
On August 31, 2026, WTI was quoted at $85.08 per barrel, up $1.68 for the day.
Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting has restored part of crude oil’s geopolitical premium.
On August 31, oil rose after renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, while Brent moved above $90 per barrel.
Severely constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to threaten physical oil supply.
On August 27, commercial traffic through the Strait was just under 10% of normal prewar levels.

Points to NO

WTI recently settled well below the threshold, demonstrating substantial downside volatility.
WTI settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28, 2026.
Recovering Gulf exports reduce the scarcity pressure supporting crude prices.
On August 28, Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf exports at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of prewar levels.

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