Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Kalshi62¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

July inflation already exceeded the threshold and August energy costs rebounded, so year-over-year CPI above 3.3% is likely.

July CPI was 3.4%, leaving a narrow cushion above the threshold. The latest pre-release estimate remains above 3.3%, and economists expect a firm August increase as energy prices rebound. Disinflation in shelter, rents, and core measures makes a downside miss plausible. On balance, August CPI above 3.3% is likely.

Points to YES

July’s annual CPI rate was already slightly above the threshold, giving YES a small starting cushion.
On August 12, the July 2026 all-items CPI rate was reported at 3.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point above the threshold.
The latest pre-release estimate places August annual CPI slightly above the threshold.
On September 3, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast put August 2026 year-over-year CPI inflation at 3.38%.
Economists expect a firm monthly CPI increase in August, consistent with annual inflation remaining above the threshold.
On September 4, economists polled by Reuters expected August 2026 CPI to rise 0.4% from July.

Points to NO

Underlying inflation was cooling before August, limiting the breadth of price pressure.
On August 12, annual CPI excluding food and energy was reported at 2.5% for July, down from 2.6% in June.
Falling apartment rents reinforce the possibility of continued shelter disinflation.
On September 2, national apartment rents were reported to have declined 0.03% in August to an average of $1,751.

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