Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket30¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Recent projections place AfD around 27–29 seats, so winning at least 35 Berlin seats is unlikely.

Recent Berlin polls consistently place AfD in the high teens, while several seat projections put it materially below 35. The strongest available evidence therefore points below the threshold. The outcome remains live because the final chamber can expand through direct mandates and compensatory seats, allowing the same vote share to produce different seat totals.

Points to NO

The latest weighted seat projection leaves AfD eight seats below the threshold.
On August 30, a weighted Berlin polling average projected 27 AfD seats.
Berlin polling shows AfD holding near 18% rather than mounting a sustained late surge.
The BerlinTrend poll conducted through August 31 placed AfD at 18%.
AfD’s support has recently been stable rather than accelerating toward election day.
The August 31 Civey poll left AfD support unchanged from its August 5 reading.

Points to YES

AfD has gained substantially since the previous Berlin election, keeping an upset path open.
The August 31 Civey poll placed AfD 8.9 percentage points above its February 2023 result.

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