Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+25%$100 paper stake

Polymarket20¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO80¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Jul 13 forecast

Mojtaba Khamenei is very unlikely to appear publicly by September 30, because the regime's July 11 use of an AI-generated image signals severe incapacitation.

Regime resort to AI imagery and absence from major funeral events confirm structural incapacitation, heavily constraining authentic media pathways.

Points to NO

OSINT analysts identified Iranian regime media utilizing AI-generated imagery, July 11
Independent OSINT analysts identified regime media using AI-generated imagery.
Mojtaba Khamenei absent from week-long funeral ceremonies in Iran, July 4-9
Mojtaba Khamenei missed father's week-long funeral ceremonies, July 4-9.
Masked Iranian funeral attendee identified as injured nephew Mohammad Javad, July 11
Nephew identified as masked funeral attendee.

Points to YES

Iranian authorities scheduled Ali Khamenei memorial ceremony for July 23
Iranian authorities scheduled memorial ceremony for Ali Khamenei on July 23.

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