Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,250 on Aug 29?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+52%$100 paper stake

Kalshi66¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES66¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 29

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

The reported August 29 benchmark value is already above $77,250, so Bitcoin meeting the threshold is likely.

The reported benchmark value and several live readings place Bitcoin modestly above the required level, making an above-threshold outcome more likely. The margin remains narrow relative to recent intraday swings, so another sharp move could still reverse the result. Recent fund inflows and bids near current prices provide support, while weakening spot demand and rebuilding leverage preserve meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

The benchmark has a small positive cushion, making an above-threshold August 29 outcome the more likely path.
On August 29, the BRTI history showed $77,530.86 and its live display showed $77,653.66, both above the $77,250 threshold.
Recent sustained fund inflows support dip-buying and reduce the chance that a modest decline becomes a deeper selloff.
By August 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds had received more than $2.8 billion across eight consecutive inflow days while exchange balances fell and varied wallet groups accumulated Bitcoin.
Substantial bids near current prices could absorb selling before it carries the benchmark decisively below the threshold.
On August 26, an order-book analysis identified about $636 million of limit bids from $75,500 to $77,800, including roughly 1,200 Bitcoin bid at $77,000.

Points to NO

The cushion is thin relative to same-day price swings, leaving material risk of a late move below the threshold.
At 12:45:40 UTC on August 29, Bitcoin was $77,618 after trading between $76,962 and $79,992 over 24 hours.
Weakening spot demand and rebuilding leverage increase the chance that renewed selling produces another rapid downswing.
An August 28 analysis reported heavy sell walls from $80,800 to $83,000, large bids around $78,000 to $79,000 and below, rebuilding open interest, and weakening spot demand.

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