Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake

Kalshi64¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

WTI already trades above the cutoff amid severe Gulf supply disruption, so an October 2026 settlement above $91.99 on September 9 is likely.

October WTI is near $93.22, giving it a modest cushion over the $91.99 threshold with little time remaining. Restricted Middle Eastern shipments, attacks on energy infrastructure, and tight physical crude markets support elevated prices. Shipping-route progress and replacement barrels could quickly erode the geopolitical premium, but WTI begins the final window above the required level, making an above-threshold settlement likely.

Points to YES

October WTI is already trading above the settlement threshold.
On September 8, WTI was quoted at $93.73 per barrel, above the $91.99 threshold.
Severely reduced Middle Eastern crude shipments continue to support prices.
On September 8, Middle Eastern crude shipments were about 11 million barrels per day, down from 18 million before the war.
Fresh attacks have impaired Saudi energy operations and sustained supply concerns.
Operations at some Saudi Arabian energy facilities were halted following Houthi attacks on September 8.

Points to NO

Progress toward a Hormuz shipping route could reduce the disruption premium.
Iran's foreign minister reported significant progress on a Hormuz route on September 8.
Alternative routes and replacement supply are cushioning lost Gulf exports.
On September 8, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE were reported to be using alternative export routes.

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