Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Oct 1 forecast

Rodrigues combines late polling gains with overwhelming mayoral support and Lula’s strength in Bahia, so his reelection is likely.

Late evidence is genuinely mixed: some surveys put Rodrigues ahead, while others show Neto leading or the candidates effectively tied. Rodrigues nevertheless enters the final stretch with gains in recent polling series, broad support among Bahia’s mayors, positive job approval and help from Lula’s strength in the state. Those advantages make a Rodrigues victory likely, but conflicting surveys and his higher rejection leave a substantial path for Neto.

Points to YES

Rodrigues leads a major late survey and has improved within that pollster’s series.
Fieldwork conducted September 24–28 put Rodrigues at 50.7% of valid-vote intentions, up two points from early September, while Neto declined 2.5 points.
Rodrigues has an exceptionally broad municipal political network across Bahia.
A review through September 25 identified public support for Rodrigues from at least 346 of Bahia’s 417 mayors.
Lula’s strength in Bahia gives Rodrigues a powerful alliance cue in the campaign’s closing days.
An early-September survey measured Lula at 58.1% in Bahia, and a local analyst said his influence strengthened Rodrigues in the final stretch.

Points to NO

Late polling remains highly unsettled, with credible surveys identifying different leaders.
Reports published September 30 showed Veritá placing Neto ahead in valid votes while AtlasIntel/A TARDE placed Rodrigues ahead.

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