Will Bitcoin be at or above $76,500 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake

Kalshi64¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin is already above $76,500 and retains strong trend support, so a September 4 price at or above the threshold is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final stretch near $78,270 after a powerful August rally, with its price above major moving averages and weekly fund flows still supportive. The cushion over $76,500 is modest, however, and recent rejection near $80,000, overbought readings, weak American spot demand and a hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop create substantial pullback risk. A September 4 reading above the threshold is likely with meaningful uncertainty because the broader uptrend remains intact despite deteriorating near-term signals.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is currently trading above the threshold after gaining during the preceding week.
On August 30, Coinbase quoted Bitcoin at $78,184.04 and reported a seven-day gain of 2.86%.
Bitcoin's broader technical trend remains positive despite the recent pullback.
On August 30, Bitcoin was above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while its daily MACD remained positive.
Strong weekly ETF demand supports the broader rally.
Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $1.92 billion during the week ending August 29.

Points to NO

Recent price rejection has left nearby support uncomfortably close to the threshold.
On August 30, immediate support was identified at $77,500, with the next support zone at $73,000 to $74,650 if that level failed.
Overbought momentum and weak American spot demand increase the risk of a sharp correction.
On August 30, daily and weekly RSI readings were above the cited overbought threshold, while the Coinbase premium had turned negative.

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