Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in September 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+138%$100 paper stake

Kalshi42¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES42¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 14

Forecast updated

Oct 2 forecast

Elevated energy prices and private estimates above the cutoff outweigh a threshold-level Cleveland Fed nowcast, so a September CPI reading above 3.6% is favored.

The latest Cleveland Fed nowcast lands exactly at 3.60%, so it does not support a YES resolution under the strict above-threshold rule. Still, Hedgeye’s full estimate range clears the cutoff, while elevated energy inflation and rebounding import prices point to substantial upward pressure. Cooling rent measures and late-September oil declines limit the expected overshoot, leaving an above-3.6% reading favored.

Points to YES

Hedgeye’s entire estimate range places September headline CPI above the threshold.
On September 30, Hedgeye estimated September headline CPI at 3.63% in its downside case, 3.74% in its base case, and 3.85% in its upside case.
Large energy-price increases make a September headline overshoot more plausible.
For August 2026, the energy CPI stood 16.3% above its year-earlier level.
The August rebound in import prices adds upstream goods-inflation pressure.
Import prices rose 0.7% in August after declining 0.3% in each of the prior two months.

Points to NO

The latest Cleveland Fed nowcast stops exactly at the threshold, which would not clear the strict rule.
On October 2, the Cleveland Fed estimated September year-over-year CPI inflation at 3.60%.
Cooling shelter inflation restrains the headline reading.
On October 1, Zillow forecast September owners’ equivalent rent inflation at 3.15% year over year.
Late-September oil weakness could temper energy’s contribution to headline CPI.
WTI spot crude fell roughly 10% from September 15 through September 23.

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