Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi41¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO59¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 28

Forecast updated

Oct 19 forecast

NO: Q 74.3% · Market odds 68.5% at forecast

Core inflation. Core inflation below the 2% target gives the Bank of Canada room to hold.

Main caution: Macklem has said he is prepared to raise the 2.25% rate at the October meeting.

Evidence and updates

Labour market. Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%.

Forecaster consensus. Citi and RBC Economics both expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates.

Snapshot: 2026-10-19T14:42:23.434107+00:00 · Quote: kalshi-market-v2:midpoint · 2026-10-19T14:02:47.999886+00:00.

Ask Q: Does the October Monetary Policy Report show energy effects spreading into services and shelter prices, or does it confine the inflation upgrade to energy?

Core inflation

The Bank of Canada's preferred CPI-median and CPI-trim measures were 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively, in September 2026, both below its 2% target.

Labour market

Canada lost 68,000 positions in September 2026.
Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.5% in September 2026 from 6.4%.

Forecaster consensus

Citi expected the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting because energy and transportation costs had not yet spread into broader inflation.
RBC Economics expected the inflation-growth trade-off to keep the Bank of Canada on hold through the rest of 2026.

Main caution

Tiff Macklem said high energy prices were boosting inflation risk and that he was prepared to raise the 2.25% policy rate at the October 2026 meeting.

Points to NO

The Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measures are running below the 2% target, removing the main argument for an immediate hike.
In September 2026, CPI-median was 1.9% and CPI-trim was 1.8%, both under the Bank's 2% target.
A sharply weaker labour market gives the Bank room to wait rather than tighten into a slowdown.
Canada lost 68,000 positions in September 2026 and unemployment rose to 6.5%, with manufacturing payrolls falling after new U.S. tariffs.
The inflation surge is concentrated in energy rather than broadening, and core-adjacent components such as food and non-gasoline prices are cooling.
In September 2026, gasoline prices rose 27.8% year over year while CPI excluding gasoline rose 2.2%, down from 2.4% in August.

Points to YES

Governor Macklem has publicly said he is prepared to raise the 2.25% policy rate at the October meeting if energy-driven inflation risk builds.
On October 17, 2026, Macklem said high energy prices were boosting inflation risk and that he was prepared to raise the 2.25% policy rate at the October meeting.
Several major forecasters, including UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank, expect a 25-basis-point hike in October.
As of October 1, 2026, UBS Global Research's baseline, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank all projected a Bank of Canada rate increase in October 2026.

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