US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

The outlook is genuinely close, but with no direct talks and US rejection of Iranian control, a formal agreement by August 31 is slightly less likely than not.

The forecast sits in the genuinely close, roughly balanced band. Active diplomacy exists only between Iran and Oman, not between the US and Iran. The supplied records through August 7 show no joint announcement, no direct negotiations acknowledged by both sides, and explicit US rejection of Iranian control or fees over Hormuz traffic. Iran’s deputy foreign minister has said the Iran-Oman agreement will not by itself reopen the strait and has tied any reopening to broad US concessions including sanctions relief and frozen-asset talks. Meanwhile US officials study the Iran-Oman draft but rule out cementing Iran’s grip. With only 24 days remaining and a prior June agreement already collapsed, the base dynamics favor failure to reach a formal US-Iran instrument by the deadline. Near-term dynamics point to pronounced downward drift over the coming days. That said, the presence of active drafting, geographic agreement, and public discussion of reopening keeps the outcome from being a clear long shot; a surprise diplomatic opening is live but not the central case.