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Bitcoin remains below the threshold with heavy holder supply overhead, so a September 4 settlement at or above $83,000 is unlikely.
Bitcoin has rallied strongly and sits only modestly below $83,000, keeping a threshold breach plausible during a volatile remaining window. However, the visible evidence leans against a qualifying settlement: recent readings remain below the threshold, holder supply is concentrated around and above it, and recent fund flows have been inconsistent. The most likely outcome is that selling pressure slows the rebound before settlement, making a price at or above $83,000 unlikely.
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