Green Bay Packers won17vs.Tampa Bay Buccaneers14

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Sep 28 forecast

Green Bay’s weak line play and run defense favor Tampa Bay, so a Packers win is less likely than not.

Tampa Bay is the more likely winner because Green Bay enters the matchup with severe problems in pass protection, rushing production, and run defense. The Packers still have a credible path through Jordan Love and productive receivers, while Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled to create pressure, tackle, and cover consistently. Green Bay’s extra preparation time also gives it a chance to correct problems exposed by Atlanta, keeping an upset firmly in play.

Points to Buccaneers

Green Bay’s run defense was overwhelmed in its latest game, creating a favorable matchup for Tampa Bay’s productive backfield.
On September 24, Atlanta gained 242 rushing yards and scored three rushing touchdowns against Green Bay.
Green Bay’s damaged offensive line has struggled to protect Jordan Love or sustain a rushing attack.
On September 24, Love was hit 12 times, Green Bay rushed for only 17 yards, two starting linemen were absent, and another left with an injury.
Tampa Bay has the offensive efficiency to pressure a Packers defense that has allowed points and long drives.
Through September 27, Baker Mayfield had completed 71% of his passes, while Bucky Irving had averaged 5.4 yards per carry.

Points to Packers

Green Bay’s passing game has enough production and explosiveness to punish Tampa Bay’s coverage problems.
Through September 27, Christian Watson had 284 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while Matthew Golden had 253 yards and one touchdown.
Tampa Bay’s defense has shown weaknesses in pressure, tackling, and coverage that Green Bay can exploit.
On September 24, an AP report assessed that Tampa Bay had generated little pressure, tackled poorly, and routinely missed coverage assignments.
Green Bay has additional recovery and preparation time after playing earlier in the preceding week.
As reported September 25, Green Bay had 10 days between its loss to Atlanta and the October 4 game in Tampa.

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