Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket70¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 2

Forecast updated

Oct 1 forecast

The rial’s record-setting September slide leaves only a modest gap to the threshold, so USD reaching 2.8 million rials on October 31 is likely.

The free-market USD rate begins October below the required level, but September’s rapid depreciation brought it substantially closer. Severe inflation, sanctions, transport restrictions, and declining foreign-currency revenue continue to favor rial weakness. Stabilizing intervention or a credible political agreement could reverse that path, while one analyst’s late-September outlook pointed to a slower rise. Even so, continued depreciation through the remaining month makes an October 31 rate of at least 2.8 million rials likely, with meaningful uncertainty from possible policy or diplomatic shocks.

Points to YES

The rial entered October with strong downward momentum after a steep September decline.
By September 30, 2026, the rial had lost about 19% of its value during September and the USD rate had reached a record high.
Extremely high inflation continues to erode the rial’s domestic purchasing power.
Official statistics cited on September 30, 2026, showed Iran’s inflation rate had reached nearly 70% in Mordad.
Sanctions and trade restrictions are constraining Iran’s access to foreign-currency revenue.
At the end of September 2026, Iran faced intensified sanctions, maritime and air-transport blockades, and declining foreign-currency revenue.

Points to NO

The USD rate remains below the market’s 2.8 million-rial threshold.
At 09:17 UTC on October 1, 2026, the open-market USD selling rate was 258,300 toman, equivalent to 2,583,000 current Iranian rials.
A recent analyst assessment anticipated a slower advance that would remain short of the threshold.
On September 29, 2026, Kambiz Afsari assessed that unchanged conditions could keep the rate near prevailing levels through October 22 before a move toward 2.6 million to 2.7 million rials.
The central bank has signaled substantial capacity to intervene against exchange-rate volatility.
On September 1, 2026, Iran’s central bank was prepared to inject as much as $2 billion into the foreign-exchange market.

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