Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 25?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 25

Forecast updatedAug 25

Bitcoin remained above the threshold at midday despite retreating from its intraday high, so a qualifying August 25 price is likely.

Same-day observations repeatedly placed Bitcoin above $78,000, including several hours above $80,000 and a peak above $81,000. The latest readings leave only a modest cushion, while profit-taking, selling pressure and elevated volatility create meaningful downside risk. Strong fund inflows and the recent breakout nevertheless make an above-threshold August 25 price likely.

Points to YES

Bitcoin’s latest midday price remained above the threshold, leaving room for some additional weakness without producing a below-threshold observation.
At 12:37:50 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price—Real Time was $78,933.67.
Repeated trading above $80,000 demonstrates buying strength and makes a complete reversal below $78,000 less likely during the remaining window.
Bitcoin recorded six consecutive hourly observations above $80,000 from 02:00 through 07:00 on August 25.
Large spot-fund inflows provide demand that can absorb profit-taking and help preserve Bitcoin’s remaining cushion above the threshold.
The thirteen U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds drew $1.92 billion in the week before August 25 and recorded a further $337 million net inflow on August 25.

Points to NO

The sharp retreat from the intraday peak shows that sellers can erase a large cushion quickly, increasing the chance of a late move below $78,000.
By 12:19 UTC on August 25, Coinbase Pro showed Bitcoin at $78,933.87 after an intraday high of $81,265.30.
Selling pressure in the current price zone and stretched momentum increase the risk that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin through its limited buffer.
On August 25, Bitfire Research identified selling pressure between $78,500 and $82,000 and placed its momentum indicator near 78, commonly interpreted as overbought.

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