Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $80 in September?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Polymarket38¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

WTI’s September lows remain far above $80 amid conflict-driven tightness, so an active-month one-minute candle touching $80 is a meaningful underdog.

The current evidence leans against a September touch: the lowest reported daily low this month is $86.13, crude inventories are tight, and conflict threatens Hormuz shipping. Still, WTI traded below $80 in late August, and most of September remains for de-escalation or improving supply to trigger another abrupt selloff. That recent volatility keeps an active-month one-minute low at or below $80 live, but it remains the less likely outcome.

Points to NO

WTI remains substantially above the $80 threshold after rising sharply at the start of September.
On September 4, WTI recorded a reported daily low of $88.72 per barrel.
Conflict around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is supporting a sizable geopolitical premium in crude prices.
As of September 4, WTI was up 8.8% for the week, its strongest weekly performance since July 13.
Tight U.S. petroleum supplies reinforce the market’s current resistance to a deep price decline.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending August 28.

Points to YES

WTI traded below $80 shortly before September, showing that the threshold remains reachable during a rapid reversal.
On August 26, WTI recorded a reported daily low of $79.62 per barrel.
Rising Iraqi exports add supply that could pressure crude if geopolitical fears recede.
Iraq’s crude exports increased from about 1.35 million barrels per day in July to 2.34 million barrels per day in August.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.