Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket38¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES38¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Oct 2 forecast

Texas’s enduring Republican advantage has repeatedly outlasted tighter polling, so Paxton winning the 2026 U.S. Senate race is favored.

Visible evidence currently leans toward Talarico: most September polls put him tied or ahead, and Paxton has weaker personal ratings. Even so, Paxton is favored because Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, retains a Republican lean, and has repeatedly delivered stronger Republican results than final polling suggested. Overwhelming pro-Paxton spending provides another closing-month advantage, although September spending moved the race only slightly.

Points to YES

Texas’s long record of electing Republicans statewide gives Paxton a durable structural advantage.
Reporting published October 1 noted that Democrats last won a U.S. Senate election in Texas in 1988.
Recent Texas Republicans have repeatedly finished stronger than their final statewide polling suggested.
A September 30 review found Republican candidates outperformed final Texas statewide polling averages in major elections from 2020 through 2024.
Paxton enters the closing month with an extraordinary advertising advantage that could accelerate Republican consolidation.
By October 1, outside groups had spent more than $205 million on the general election, with over 98% supporting Paxton, and another $20 million purchase began October 2.

Points to NO

Talarico has maintained a small but persistent polling lead despite heavy Republican spending.
On October 1, the Texas Tribune polling aggregate showed Talarico two points ahead after Republican spending moved the September average only slightly toward Paxton.
Paxton’s weak personal ratings and defections among Republican primary voters threaten normal partisan consolidation.
A September 24–28 Fox News poll found Paxton viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 58%, while 20% of Cornyn primary voters supported Talarico.

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