Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+49%$100 paper stake

Polymarket67¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES67¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Sep 24 forecast

Hannah Pingree's double-digit lead in the governor race and Troy Jackson's slight polling advantage in the Senate race make a Democratic sweep likely.

Democrats are highly likely to win the Maine governor's race, where Hannah Pingree leads by double digits, while the Senate race is closer but leans Democratic. Troy Jackson has led in most polls since early August, buoyed by a strong national environment and low approval for President Trump. However, Susan Collins retains advantages in cash, name recognition, and a reputation as an independent institution, keeping the Senate race competitive. The probability that Democrats win both races is therefore high but not certain, driven primarily by the governor's race and a small edge in the Senate.

Points to YES

Hannah Pingree holds a commanding lead in the governor's race, making a Democratic win in that contest highly probable.
The Aug 28–Sep 14 UNH poll shows Hannah Pingree leading Bobby Charles 49% to 38% among likely voters, a double-digit advantage.
The national political environment strongly favors Democrats, boosting turnout and down-ballot prospects in Maine.
As of Sept 24, Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot by 8.8 points among likely voters, and President Trump's approval in Maine is only 32%.
Troy Jackson holds a narrow but consistent polling advantage in the Senate race, a key foundation for a sweep.
Troy Jackson has led Susan Collins in six of eight public polls released since early August 2026, including a 51%-47% lead in the latest UNH survey.

Points to NO

Susan Collins's incumbency and financial resources give her a path to hold the Senate seat despite polling deficits.
Senator Susan Collins has $11 million cash on hand and enjoys a 51% favorable rating, while Troy Jackson is less well-known and faces $49 million in negative ads.

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