Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi40¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO60¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin has remained below $78,500 throughout September 3 amid weak short-term momentum, so a threshold-clearing settlement is unlikely.

Bitcoin is only 0.74% below $78,500, but its September 3 price and daily high remained under the threshold. Recent failure to sustain higher levels and increased potential selling pressure reinforce the downside. An August close above $78,500 shows the target remains reachable, leaving a threshold-clearing settlement unlikely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin remained below $78,500 during the final settlement day, without an intraday breach of the threshold.
At 4:03 AM UTC on September 3, Coinbase Pro BTC/USD was $77,731.28 and its daily high was $77,877.20.
Bitcoin's recent inability to sustain higher prices indicates weak short-term buying momentum.
On September 2, Glassnode assessed that Bitcoin's failure to sustain a move above $80,000 reflected moderated short-term enthusiasm.
Profitable holders near current prices create additional potential selling pressure into any rebound.
On August 31, Glassnode assessed that more supply was held in profit near $78,000 than when Bitcoin traded there in May.

Points to YES

Bitcoin recently demonstrated that it can trade and close just above the settlement threshold.
Bitcoin closed August at $78,571, slightly above the $78,500 threshold.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.