Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Kalshi84¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

October WTI is already above $89.49 with Hormuz disruption supporting prices, so an above-threshold September 8 settlement is highly likely.

Settlement-basis WTI is near $92.04, about $2.55 above the threshold with less than two days remaining. Severe Hormuz transit disruption, tanker attacks and consecutive settlements above $91 support prices. The September 4 intraday low of $88.72 shows that a sudden reversal could cross the threshold, especially if tensions ease, but continued trading above $89.49 is highly likely.

Points to YES

The current price provides a meaningful cushion over the settlement threshold.
On September 6, settlement-basis WTI stood at $92.0352, about $2.55 above $89.49.
Severely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to support a conflict premium in crude prices.
On September 3, only three vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, compared with a pre-war baseline of 135 vessels per day.
The latest October WTI settlement was already comfortably above the required level.
October WTI settled at $91.48 per barrel on September 4.

Points to NO

Recent intraday trading shows that volatility can carry WTI below the threshold even when it closes higher.
Front-month WTI traded as low as $88.72 on September 4 before closing above $89.49.
Reduced expectations of near-term escalation could unwind part of crude oil's conflict premium.
On September 4, Dimitris Maniatis said the latest intelligence assessment had reduced expectations of near-term escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

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