Will November 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi40¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO60¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 10

Forecast updated

Nov 6 forecast

NO: Q 70.6% · Market odds 67.5% at forecast

Busiest day. A separate November monitor covering six recorded days found November 5 the busiest, with 28 detected crossings.

Main caution: One live tracker already puts November 6 above every earlier day on a partial count.

Evidence and updates

Official series. IMF PortWatch has published no Strait of Hormuz transit counts for November 2 through November 6.

Update schedule. IMF PortWatch refreshes its chokepoint transit data only on Tuesdays, so the week's official ranking stays open.

Snapshot: 2026-11-06T15:13:13.462205+00:00 · Quote: kalshi-market-v2:midpoint · 2026-11-06T15:02:51.771040+00:00.

Ask Q: Will the next AIS-visible counts for November 7 and November 8 come in above November 6's full-day total, and how does IMF PortWatch's AIS-based series rank those same days when it updates?

Busiest day

A separate November monitor covering six recorded days identified November 5 as the busiest day, with 28 detected crossings.

Official series

IMF PortWatch's latest published Strait of Hormuz reading as of November 5 was 2 ship transits on October 25, 2026, including 1 tanker and 1 cargo vessel; it had not yet published readings for November 2–6.
At 15:09 UTC on November 6, IMF PortWatch had not published a figure for November 6, and its latest available date remained October 25.

Update schedule

PortWatch's daily chokepoint transit-call dataset is scheduled to update weekly on Tuesdays at 9 AM ET.

Main caution

Hormuz.now's daily AIS-visible commercial totals were 5 on November 2, 7 on November 3, 7 on November 4, and 9 on November 5, all below its partial November 6 count of 11.
At 15:09 UTC on November 6, hormuz.now had counted 11 AIS-visible commercial crossings that day: 3 inbound, 8 outbound, including 4 tankers.

Points to NO

A separate November monitor already found November 5 the busiest recorded day.
A November monitor covering six recorded days identified November 5 as the busiest day, with 28 detected crossings.
The settling series has published nothing inside the window, so commercial rankings may not carry over.
At 15:09 UTC on November 6, IMF PortWatch's latest available date remained October 25, 2026, when it recorded 2 transits.

Points to YES

November 6 already leads the week on the only tracker publishing a live count.
Hormuz.now counted 11 AIS-visible commercial crossings by 15:09 UTC on November 6, above its full-day totals of 9 on November 5 and 7 on November 3 and 4.
The November 6 tally is unfinished and can keep climbing before the UTC day closes.
The 15:09 UTC update covered only 00:00 UTC through that time, leaving the remainder of November 6 uncounted.

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