Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Fresh regional attacks pushed October WTI above the threshold with hours remaining, so an August 31 settlement above $85.49 is favored.

The current settlement-basis price is $85.63, leaving only a narrow cushion above the threshold. October WTI earlier reached $86.58 after escalating U.S.-Iran attacks and severe Hormuz shipping disruption lifted crude. The previous settlement was $83.40, recovering Persian Gulf exports limit upside, and the official settlement window is still ahead. An above-threshold settlement is therefore favored.

Points to YES

October WTI has already traded more than a dollar above the threshold on settlement day.
At 5:52 a.m. EDT on August 31, the October contract was quoted at $86.50, up from its $83.40 previous close.
Fresh U.S.-Iran attacks are sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in crude.
On August 31, oil prices gapped higher after the United States struck Iranian missile launchers and Iran reportedly retaliated against U.S. regional assets.
Severely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to constrain oil flows.
Commodity-ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five per day over the weekend immediately before August 31.

Points to NO

The previous official settlement was well below the required level.
The October 2026 WTI contract settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28, down $0.13 for the day.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the scope for further price gains.
On August 28, Persian Gulf oil exports were reported at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels.

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