Will Ethereum be at or above $2,490 on Sep 6?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+82%$100 paper stake

Kalshi55¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES55¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 6

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Ethereum is currently just above the threshold, so a price of at least $2,490 at settlement is favored.

Ethereum begins the final 14.9 hours at $2,510.34, only about $20 above the required level. That cushion supports a YES outcome, and the September 4 rebound showed buyers can reclaim the threshold quickly. Still, September 5 quotes fell below $2,490, while repeated rejection near $2,500 and slight sell-side pressure leave substantial reversal risk. With recent prices crossing the line in both directions, settlement at or above $2,490 is favored.

Points to YES

Ethereum currently sits above the settlement threshold, providing a narrow but direct cushion.
On September 6, the settlement-basis price was $2,510.34, compared with the required $2,490.
Ethereum has recently demonstrated enough buying strength to recover from below the threshold.
On September 4, ether recovered nearly 6% from its daily low to around $2,524.

Points to NO

Repeated rejection near $2,500 shows that sellers remain active just above the threshold.
On September 5, ether remained below the $2,500 resistance zone after being rejected there again that day.
A nearby liquidation concentration could amplify a small decline through the threshold.
On September 4, the nearest downside liquidation concentration was around $2,485–$2,490.
Short-term order flow has leaned slightly toward sellers.
On September 5, Ethereum's 30-day taker buy/sell ratio was around 0.995, indicating that aggressive sell orders had slightly outweighed aggressive buy orders.

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