Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

WTI is currently above $84.49 with less than a day to settlement, so an August 31 settlement above the threshold is favored.

The latest settlement-basis price is $85.0562, leaving only a narrow cushion above $84.49 and substantial exposure to ordinary intraday volatility. The visible price record leans against an above-threshold settlement: October WTI finished below the line on August 27 and 28 after a steep weekly decline, while recovering Gulf exports add downward pressure. Still, the contract has moved back above the threshold with less than a day remaining, and fresh U.S.-Iran clashes can quickly restore a disruption premium, so an above-threshold settlement is favored.

Points to YES

October WTI currently stands above the settlement threshold, giving an above-threshold result a small but important head start.
On August 30, the current settlement-basis price was $85.0562, about $0.57 above the $84.49 threshold.
Fresh U.S.-Iran military escalation raises the immediate risk of disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
On August 30, U.S. Central Command said the military struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to disperse mines into the Strait of Hormuz.
Commercial traffic through Hormuz remains severely constrained despite reports of recovering aggregate exports.
On August 27, commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was reported at just under one-tenth of normal pre-war levels.

Points to NO

Recent settlements below $84.49 show that the current cushion follows a weak stretch and could quickly vanish.
On August 28, October 2026 WTI settled at $83.40 after declining $0.13 that day.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports reduce the scarcity pressure that had supported elevated crude prices.
On August 28, Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to 15 million–16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.

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