Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

PortWatch's most recent weekly count of 207 sits close to the 190 bar.

The question turns on whether IMF PortWatch's daily Bab el-Mandeb transit counts sum above 190 for October 12–18. The most recent complete PortWatch week, September 28–October 4, totaled 207, and the four reported days from October 1–4 averaged 29.5 per day. That is close to the threshold, but the daily series is noisy: September 30 printed 22, and the prior week included a 47 and a 39. A week that mixes mid-30s days with low-20s days lands near or below 190. Supporting volume is real: containership transits hit 314 in September, the highest since late 2023, and Saudi Red Sea crude exports remain active with the East-West pipeline running at 5.8 million barrels per day. Against that, the 30-day PortWatch count is 23% below a year earlier, and dark transits fell from 26 to 17 in the week through October 4. Security risk is elevated — Houthi spokesmen promise further attacks, and a reported offensive near Bab el-Mandeb has raised disruption concerns — but no closure or new merchant-vessel strike has been confirmed. Markets currently treat this outcome as somewhat unlikely, and the strongest consideration behind that view is the recent run of daily counts that has repeatedly printed in the 20s and low 30s, which is not enough to clear 190 over seven days.