Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Kalshi62¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

WTI is currently above the strike after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting, so an October-contract settlement above $85.49 is favored.

The settlement-basis price is 86.1955, leaving a modest cushion over the 85.49 threshold after renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted crude. Severe Gulf supply constraints and depleted inventories support the contract, but recovering exports and the absence of major damage from Iran’s latest retaliation could quickly erode the conflict premium. Recent settlements below the threshold show that the remaining cushion is fragile. On balance, an above-threshold settlement is favored.

Points to YES

October WTI is currently above the settlement threshold, providing a small but meaningful cushion.
On August 31, the settlement-basis price was 86.1955 USD/Bbl, compared with the 85.49 USD/Bbl threshold.
Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have restored an immediate geopolitical premium to crude prices.
On August 31, October WTI rose after U.S. strikes on Iranian launchers and Iranian retaliation.
Large global supply losses and depleted inventories leave crude vulnerable to renewed upside pressure.
On August 12, the IEA estimated a third-quarter global oil deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day.

Points to NO

Iran’s latest retaliation caused no reported major damage, allowing the conflict premium to fade rapidly.
On August 31, Jordan’s army said it intercepted eight missiles following Iran’s retaliatory attack announcement.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports reduce the immediate scarcity supporting oil prices.
On August 28, Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf oil exports at 15–16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of prewar levels.
The contract’s most recent official settlement was materially below the threshold.
On August 28, October 2026 WTI settled at 83.40 USD/Bbl.

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