Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Kalshi70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 2

Forecast updated

Sep 30 forecast

Most contemporaneous forecasts place September unemployment above the cutoff, so a U-3 reading above 4.0% is likely.

September forecasts cluster above 4.0%, while the prior unrounded reading was already above 4.1%. Low unemployment claims and a forecast for lower participation create meaningful downside risk, but the most likely outcome remains a September U-3 rate above the threshold.

Points to YES

The latest broad forecast median places September unemployment at 4.1%, above the resolution threshold.
On September 30, the Wall Street Journal survey’s median forecast for the September unemployment rate was 4.1%.
The prior month’s unrounded rate left the unemployment measure above 4.1% before September began.
On September 7, the unrounded August unemployment rate was reported to have risen from 4.09% to 4.14%.
Multiple independent forecasts place September unemployment between 4.1% and 4.2%.
On September 25, a Reuters poll of economists forecast a 4.2% September unemployment rate.

Points to NO

Low claims indicate limited layoffs and support a stable rather than rising unemployment rate.
On September 24, Reuters reported that survey-week continuing claims were near a three-year low and suggested unemployment remained at 4.1%.
A credible forecast puts the rounded September rate exactly at 4.0%, which would fail the strict above-threshold test.
On September 27, Macro Spectrum forecast that September unemployment would edge down to 4.0%, although it said risks were skewed upward.
Lower labor-force participation could reduce measured unemployment even with weak hiring.
On September 24, KPMG US assessed that participation would materially affect the rate and would likely edge lower after its August surge.

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