Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+59%$100 paper stake

Kalshi63¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES63¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 10 forecast

Most major estimates cluster around 0.4%, so an August CPI increase above 0.3% is likely, with meaningful uncertainty from forecasts at the cutoff.

The evidence leans clearly toward an increase above 0.3%, with broad surveys and several independent estimates clustering from 0.36% to 0.40%. Forecasts of exactly 0.3% keep the outcome uncertain because that reading would not clear the threshold. The most likely release is 0.4%, reflecting a marked acceleration from July’s 0.1% increase.

Points to YES

The broad pre-release consensus centers on a 0.4% monthly increase, above the required threshold.
On September 9, 2026, FactSet consensus estimates projected a 0.4% August CPI increase.
A large economist survey independently places the expected increase at 0.4%.
On September 9, 2026, a Reuters poll of economists projected a 0.4% monthly rise in August CPI.
A model-based estimate also sits above the cutoff, reducing reliance on survey consensus alone.
As of August 28, 2026, the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast estimated August monthly CPI inflation at 0.36%.

Points to NO

Some credible estimates land exactly at the cutoff, which would not satisfy a more-than-0.3% threshold.
On September 9, 2026, Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast a 0.3% increase in August headline CPI.
July’s subdued inflation reading shows that recent monthly momentum was weak before August.
On August 12, 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.1% in July.

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