Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 6

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

The PQ’s durable polling lead and divided opposition give it the clearest path across Quebec, so a PQ victory in the seat count is likely.

The PQ enters the campaign first in voting intentions after nearly three years of polling leadership. Its support is spread across more seat-rich regions than its rivals’ support, while the federalist vote remains divided among the Liberals, CAQ and Conservatives. That makes the PQ likely to win the most seats even if it falls short of a majority. Meaningful uncertainty remains because the CAQ is improving, many competitive ridings have narrow margins and a large share of voters could still change their choice.

Points to YES

A durable province-wide lead gives the PQ the best starting position and forces several weaker rivals to divide the seats available to its opposition.
On August 27, the PQ stood first at 30% overall and 36% among francophones after holding first place in voting intentions for nearly three years.
Broad strength outside the largest metropolitan battlegrounds gives the PQ several regional routes to a seat plurality, reducing its dependence on Montreal or Quebec City.
Regional figures published August 27 placed the PQ well ahead in Centre-du-Québec, Estrie and Mauricie and also first in the Laurentides, Lanaudière and Montérégie.
The opposition’s geographic and political fragmentation makes it difficult for any single rival to assemble more seats than the PQ.
On August 25, the Liberals were described as too weak among francophone voters to challenge for government, while the CAQ retained only an outside path through winning many close races.

Points to NO

The CAQ’s recent recovery creates a credible path to retaining pivotal ridings that the PQ needs, lowering confidence in a decisive PQ seat advantage.
The August 21–24 survey kept the PQ at 30% while the CAQ rose to 23%, level with the Liberals, and found that 44% of decided voters had not finalized their choice.
Numerous narrow riding contests make the PQ’s seat total sensitive to modest regional swings, candidate problems or late tactical voting.
On August 27, the riding picture showed close PQ contests against four different parties in constituencies including Trois-Rivières, La Prairie, Louis-Hébert, Rosemont and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.

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