Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+23%$100 paper stake

Polymarket19¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO81¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Sep 12 forecast

Aden remains government-held and its western approaches are reinforced, so Houthi military entry into a qualifying district by October 31 is a long shot.

The Houthis have gained substantial coastal territory and pushed into Lahj, but available reporting still places retreating government forces about 90 km west of Aden while the city remains government-held and reinforces its approaches. Houthi momentum leaves a narrow path open if southern defenses suddenly unravel, but the rules require deliberate military operations inside a qualifying Aden district; bombardment, offshore activity, or movement into excluded Al Buraiqeh would not count. With limited time, no established preparations for an Aden assault, and Houthi leadership disclaiming further territorial ambitions, qualifying entry is a long shot.

Points to NO

Aden remains under internationally recognized government control.
A September 11 report said Aden remained under internationally recognized government control.
Security forces are strengthening Aden’s western approaches as the front draws closer.
On September 11, security forces reinforced Aden’s western approaches as the front moved closer to the city.
Houthi leadership has publicly disclaimed further territorial ambitions.
On September 10, Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdul Salam said the group had no further territorial ambitions.

Points to YES

The rapid Houthi advance into Lahj has shortened the route to Aden.
On September 11, government forces had retreated to Khor Omeira in Lahj, about 90 km west of Aden.
Outside military pressure has not yet stopped the Houthi advance.
Saudi airstrikes had failed to stop the Houthi advance by September 11.

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