US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+92%$100 paper stake

Polymarket52¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES52¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 15

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Only specified U.S. strikes directly impacting Iranian territory reset the clock, so an effective ceasefire beginning by September 7 is favored.

Current evidence leans against a ceasefire: U.S. strikes continued through the week, Tehran threatened stronger retaliation, and intelligence assessments anticipated prolonged conflict. Even so, the rules exclude maritime attacks and several other forms of force, while the required quiet period can finish after September 7. Mediation and both sides’ stated interest in avoiding full-scale war make a qualifying-strike pause favored, though another territorial impact remains a serious risk.

Points to YES

Recent tanker strikes appear outside the territorial scope that resets the ceasefire clock.
The September 5 U.S. tanker strikes were reported in the Gulf of Oman and waters near Kharg Island, not as impacts on Iran’s terrestrial territory.
Mediators are actively discussing a new formula for ending the standoff.
As of September 6, mediators and Iran were discussing a new formula for resolving the U.S.–Iran confrontation.
Neither side appears to want the conflict to return to full-scale war.
On September 4, Hamidreza Azizi assessed that neither the United States nor Iran wanted to resume full-scale war.

Points to NO

Continuing U.S. attacks make another qualifying territorial strike a serious risk.
On September 6, renewed U.S.–Iran fighting was reported to have continued through the week, with multiple U.S. strikes on Iranian targets.
U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran expects to continue the conflict rather than settle quickly.
On September 6, officials familiar with recent U.S. intelligence said Iran appeared determined to continue the conflict for months and showed few signs of readiness for a deal.

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