Will Ethereum be at or above $2,430 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi38¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO62¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Ethereum remains below the threshold after failing to reach it intraday, so a $2,430-or-higher 5 p.m. EDT reading is unlikely.

Ethereum is roughly 0.91% below the threshold, and today’s reported trading ranges have remained entirely below it. ETF outflows, negative US pricing signals, and recent long liquidations reinforce the immediate weakness. Strong August investment demand and the small price gap keep an upside crossing live, but today’s price action makes a $2,430-or-higher reading unlikely.

Points to NO

Ethereum entered the remaining window below $2,430, leaving an immediate gap to close.
At 1:24 p.m. on September 3, Ethereum traded at $2,404, below the $2,430 threshold.
Ethereum has not reached the threshold anywhere in its reported September 3 range.
Ethereum’s reported September 3 intraday range was $2,357 to $2,417, with its high below $2,430.
Fresh fund outflows have interrupted a recent source of buying demand.
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $48 million of net outflows on September 2, ending a 12-day positive streak.

Points to YES

The broader daily trend remains supportive despite the immediate weakness.
On September 3, Ethereum remained above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages.
Strong August investment demand leaves some capacity for buyers to reemerge.
Ether investment funds drew $1.6 billion in August, up from $297 million in July.

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