Will Bitcoin be at or above $75,500 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Kalshi74¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin is trading near $77,930 with positive momentum and a modest threshold cushion, so a September 4 price of $75,500 or higher is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final days above the threshold, supported by positive trend measures, recent gains and strong weekly fund inflows. The cushion is modest, however, and the rapid post-speech selloff shows that one sharp move could erase it. The most likely outcome is continued consolidation above $75,500, with meaningful uncertainty from elevated technical conditions and nearby support that could fail under renewed macroeconomic pressure.

Points to YES

Bitcoin begins the closing stretch several thousand dollars above the required level.
On August 30, Coinbase quoted Bitcoin at $78,184.04, compared with the $75,500 threshold.
Bitcoin's broader price trend remains positive despite its pullback from recent highs.
On August 30, Bitcoin remained above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while its daily MACD was positive.
Recent investment-fund demand provides underlying support for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin spot ETFs received $1.92 billion in net inflows during the week ending August 29.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already shown it can lose the entire threshold cushion within hours.
On August 28, Bitcoin fell by $3,000 within hours after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and traded below $77,000.
Nearby support leaves little protection if selling accelerates.
On August 30, near-term support was assessed at $77,500, with the next support area at $73,000 to $74,650 if it failed.
Overbought readings and unrealized gains increase short-term correction risk.
On August 30, Bitcoin's daily RSI was about 71 and its weekly RSI about 81, both above the source's overbought threshold.

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