Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi44¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES44¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin is only 0.14% below the threshold after trading above it on September 7.

Bitcoin is currently $79,385.89, leaving only a 0.14% rise needed to reach the threshold. Recent prices have straddled $79,500, while strong ETF inflows provide support. Against that, unexpectedly strong employment data knocked Bitcoin down from above $82,000, and repeated selling has emerged at higher levels. Inflation releases before settlement could produce a sharp move in either direction. A narrowly above-threshold finish is the most likely single outcome, but the evidence leaves the result genuinely close.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has recently traded above the settlement threshold, showing that only a modest recovery is required.
On September 7, Bitcoin traded at $79,835.40, up 0.4% over the preceding 24 hours.
Strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows indicate continued institutional demand despite recent price weakness.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received approximately $731 million on September 4 and about $175 million the following day.

Points to NO

The latest employment surprise caused a rapid retreat, showing Bitcoin remains vulnerable to tighter-rate expectations.
Bitcoin fell from an intraday level above $82,000 after the August U.S. payroll report on September 4.
Repeated selling above $80,500 could limit the buffer Bitcoin builds over the threshold.
On September 7, Bitcoin repeatedly encountered selling pressure between approximately $80,500 and $82,500.

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