Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+79%$100 paper stake

Kalshi56¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Severely constrained Hormuz traffic is sustaining crude near the threshold, so an October WTI settlement above $91.99 on September 8 is favored.

The settlement-basis price is $91.8679, only about $0.12 below the cutoff, after WTI traded above it on September 7. Exceptionally thin Hormuz traffic, absent VLCC exits, and high refinery utilization support another push above $91.99. Recent sub-threshold settlements and an Asian-hours drop near $90 leave substantial downside, so an above-threshold September 8 settlement is favored.

Points to YES

WTI has already traded above the settlement threshold during the final approach to the deadline.
On September 7, WTI reached $92.14 per barrel by 2354 GMT, up 66 cents.
Exceptionally low Strait of Hormuz traffic is sustaining near-term supply risk.
On September 7, shipping data showed an average of 10 commodity vessels per day transiting the strait during the preceding 10 days, the lowest level since May.
The continued absence of outbound supertankers indicates that crude flows remain severely impaired.
Data reported on September 7 showed that no very large crude carrier had exited the Strait of Hormuz since September 2.

Points to NO

A sharp September 7 pullback demonstrates meaningful downside risk before settlement.
WTI traded near $90 per barrel during Asian hours on September 7.
The most recent completed settlement remained below the threshold.
October WTI settled at $91.48 per barrel on September 4.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.