Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket16¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 8

Forecast updated

Sep 12 forecast

Traffic remains well above the qualifying threshold, so a Bab el-Mandeb seven-day transit average at or below 10 is a long shot.

The visible evidence leans strongly against effective closure: recent alternative tracking counts mostly remained in the mid-to-high twenties, while August traffic also stayed far above the qualifying threshold. The September 11 decline to 15 crossings and the Houthi capture of strategic coastline and islands create a serious disruption risk, but the group says non-Saudi navigation remains safe. These trackers do not exactly match IMF PortWatch's arrivals measure, and no current PortWatch series was available in the supplied records, leaving some uncertainty around the precise level. Reaching the threshold would still require a much broader and more sustained collapse than the evidence currently shows.

Points to NO

Recent ship traffic has generally remained far above the level consistent with a qualifying seven-day average.
On September 9, Kpler recorded 28 commodity-ship transits, close to its 10-day average of 27.
The latest sharp daily decline still left traffic above the market's threshold before averaging across seven days.
Preliminary Kpler data showed 15 total crossings on September 11, down from 30 on September 10.
The Houthis are publicly limiting their declared shipping threat to Saudi vessels rather than all commercial traffic.
On September 11, Houthi forces said navigation remained safe for all companies except Saudi vessels.

Points to YES

Houthi control of the Yemeni shore and strategic islands increases the group's ability to disrupt the strait.
On September 11, government officials reported that the Houthis seized the Yemeni side of Bab el-Mandeb, Mayyun Island and the neighboring Red Sea coastline.

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