Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,750 on Sep 8?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Kalshi78¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES78¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

Bitcoin has a modest cushion over $77,750 with little time left, so a September 8 settlement at or above the threshold is likely.

Bitcoin is around $78,789, modestly above the threshold, after several recent observations near $79,000. With less than a day remaining, a September 8 price at or above $77,750 is likely. The main risk is Bitcoin’s capacity for sudden moves larger than its current cushion, especially after repeated failures near $80,000.

Points to YES

Bitcoin entered September 8 above the required threshold, leaving a modest cushion with limited time remaining.
On September 8, Bitcoin fell to $78,920, which remained above $77,750.
Recent trading has repeatedly clustered near $79,000 rather than below the threshold.
Bitcoin traded at $79,663 on September 7.
Steady institutional demand has helped support Bitcoin despite resistance overhead.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $770 million of net inflows from September 1 through September 4.

Points to NO

Bitcoin can move far more than its current cushion within a single session.
On September 4, Bitcoin dropped as much as 3.5% after the August US jobs data.
Repeated rejection near $80,000 shows that upward momentum is limited and leaves Bitcoin exposed to another pullback.
During the week ending September 7, Bitcoin failed to clear $80,000 and returned to near $79,000.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.