Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket61¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO39¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 22

Forecast updated

Sep 19 forecast

Signing ceremonies extend across the full UN session, so a formal Greenland agreement signing by September 23 is less likely than not.

Both the United States and Denmark have publicly confirmed a comprehensive Arctic security framework establishing permanent American basing access, overflight rights, and defense control in Greenland. However, market resolution strictly demands formal execution by authorized signatories by September 23. Danish government statements indicate that the formal signing will occur on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, whose high-level debate opens on Tuesday, September 22. This window leaves barely forty-eight hours for diplomatic signing ceremonies before the deadline. Because multilateral summit schedules frequently push formal bilateral treaty signings toward mid-to-late week meetings, completion on or before Wednesday remains less likely than not.

Points to NO

The Danish Prime Minister's office scheduled the formal signing for the upcoming week around the United Nations General Assembly without fixing an early date.
On September 18, Statsministeriet stated that Denmark, Greenland, and the United States expect to sign the agreement the following week during the UN General Assembly.
The UN General Assembly high-level debate only begins on Tuesday, leaving merely 48 hours to execute signatures before the September 23 cutoff.
The high-level general debate at the UN General Assembly in New York is scheduled to open on Tuesday, September 22.

Points to YES

Political leaders have already announced a finalized deal framework granting permanent U.S. security access and basing privileges in Greenland.
On September 18, Danish and U.S. officials announced an Arctic security pact granting the United States permanent access and basing rights in Greenland.

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