US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+16%$100 paper stake

Polymarket14¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO86¢ → 100¢

Signal endedJul 30

Forecast updated

Jul 17 forecast

No US-Iran ceasefire can complete by July 24 because strikes through roughly July 16 push the earliest possible end of a 14-day halt to about July 29.

Confirmed US strikes through approximately July 16 reset the 14-day clock so the earliest possible completion is around July 29-30, after the July 24 resolution, making contract… Whether resolution authorities apply strict calendar arithmetic or allow reinterpretation despite the hard deadline. Strikes through July 16 reset the 14-day clock; earliest end is ~July 29-30, past resolution. Resolution assessment is fixed at July 24 23:59 ET, before any valid 14-day span can finish.

Points to NO

Strikes through July 16 reset the 14-day clock; earliest end is ~July 29-30, past resolution.
Evidence
Resolution assessment is fixed at July 24 23:59 ET, before any valid 14-day span can finish.
Evidence

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