Will Bitcoin be at or above $75,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+23%$100 paper stake

Kalshi81¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES81¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin is trading comfortably above the threshold after a powerful rally backed by sustained ETF inflows, so an August 28 price at or above $75,500 is highly likely.

Bitcoin enters the remaining window with a substantial cushion above the threshold, strong recent momentum and sustained ETF demand. Overbought conditions, resistance around $81,000 and a large options expiry create pullback risk, but a decline deep enough to erase the cushion is not the expected path.

Points to YES

A sizable spot-price cushion makes a threshold breach during the remaining window less likely.
At 16:50 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price was $79,245.11, nearly $3,750 above the threshold.
Persistent ETF inflows provide spot demand that can absorb profit-taking and help keep Bitcoin above the threshold.
On August 25, six consecutive U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflow days were reported, including $337.56 million on August 24 and more than $2.5 billion across the streak.
Strong momentum without heavily expanded futures leverage favors continued price resilience rather than an immediate leverage-driven collapse.
On August 25, Bitcoin crossed $80,000 for the first time since May, extended its seven-day advance to roughly 25% and still had restrained futures leverage.

Points to NO

Extreme overbought readings increase the chance of a corrective pullback that could narrow or erase the current cushion.
On August 25, Bitcoin's daily RSI was 84.01 while its price traded near the upper Bollinger Band, conditions described as commonly inviting a pullback or pause.
A large options expiry could amplify short-term swings, adding downside risk while Bitcoin trades only modestly above the threshold.
About $6.44 billion of Bitcoin options were scheduled to expire August 28, with the largest call open interest at the nearby $75,000 strike.

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