Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,250 on Sep 6?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Kalshi74¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 6

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Bitcoin is about $690 above the strike with under 15 hours remaining, so a settlement at or above $79,250 is likely.

The short remaining window and current $690 cushion make an above-threshold settlement the more likely outcome. The evidence is not one-sided: September 5 trading crossed the strike, the recovery stalled below $80,000, and underlying demand weakened. Bullish moving-average signals and recent ETF inflows provide support, but the narrow cushion leaves meaningful uncertainty because a normal intraday swing could erase it.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a modest cushion above the $79,250 settlement threshold.
On September 6, settlement-basis Bitcoin was $79,939.84, about $690 above the strike with under 15 hours remaining.
Bitcoin’s broader technical trend still leans upward despite short-term weakness.
On September 5, Bitcoin was above every listed simple and exponential moving average from 10 through 200 periods.
Recent ETF inflows provide a supportive demand backdrop.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $174.6 million of inflows on September 4 after $730.8 million on September 3.

Points to NO

Recent volatility has already carried Bitcoin below the settlement threshold.
On September 5, Bitcoin traded between $78,706 and $79,848, spanning both sides of $79,250.
The latest rally showed weak underlying buying demand.
On September 5, CryptoQuant reported that short covering supplied most of the rally’s momentum and assessed underlying demand as weakened.

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