Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Sep 10?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi66¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES66¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 10

Forecast updated

Sep 10 forecast

Bitcoin trades at $78,218 with less than a day remaining, so settlement at or above $77,500 is likely despite the slim cushion.

Bitcoin currently stands at $78,218, only 0.92% above the settlement threshold. Its rebound from $77,603 shows buyers have recently defended this area, while bullish moving averages support near-term resilience. However, ETF outflows, rising yields and oil prices, and repeated reversals from higher levels leave meaningful risk of a late drop through the threshold. An above-threshold settlement is more likely because Bitcoin begins the final hours on the required side, but the small buffer makes the outcome far from guaranteed.

Points to YES

Bitcoin begins the final settlement window above the required price.
On September 10, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $78,218, above the $77,500 threshold.
Buyers recently defended prices just above the settlement threshold.
On September 9, Bitcoin rebounded above $79,000 after falling to $77,603 a day earlier.
Short-term trend measures remained broadly supportive during the latest recovery.
On September 9, Bitcoin's daily moving-average gauge registered 14 bullish readings, one neutral reading and no bearish readings.

Points to NO

Institutional spot demand weakened immediately before settlement.
On September 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $236 million in net daily outflows.
The wider risk backdrop became less supportive for volatile assets.
On September 9, U.S. stocks closed lower as oil exceeded $100 per barrel and Treasury yields rose.

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