US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket46¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO54¢ → 0¢

Signal endedJul 30

Forecast updated

Jul 20 forecast

No official suspension will come; the administration continues active strikes and rejects ceasefire language through July 31.

The United States is actively striking Iranian targets on consecutive nights through July 19, according to official military updates and Associated Press reporting. President Trump and the White House have recently declared the prior ceasefire finished and emphasized continuing offensive operations. There is no record of an official statement announcing a general halt between July 18 and July 20. Given only 11 days remain and the administration’s posture favors sustained action, a sudden formal suspension is highly unlikely. The forecast treats this as a near-certain continuation scenario with a very small tail for an unexpected diplomatic reversal.

Points to NO

US Central Command and Associated Press report strikes continuing through July 18 and July 19, with no pause mentioned.
Evidence
President Trump stated on July 8 that the ceasefire is over and that the US should finish the job, signaling sustained offensive intent.
Evidence
The resolution criteria require a clear, present, general cessation; partial or tactical changes do not qualify.

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