Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket30¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 1

Forecast updated

Sep 19 forecast

Oman has not clearly accepted Iran’s claimed final plan after the regional meeting was postponed, so an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by the deadline is unlikely.

Iran says a reopening plan is agreed, and earlier talks produced detailed corridor, mine-clearing, and traffic-management concepts. Yet the visible evidence leans against timely qualification: the Salalah meeting was postponed, announcement mechanics remain unsettled, Oman has not issued a comparably explicit acceptance, and Iran still links broader reopening to U.S. action. The remaining weeks and advanced drafting keep a late announcement possible, but continued negotiation is more likely than matched acceptance before the cutoff.

Points to NO

The main regional meeting was postponed, delaying a potential venue for advancing the agreement.
On September 13, Oman’s foreign minister said the September 14 Salalah meeting had been postponed in the interests of consensus.
The two governments had not settled how to announce or register their understanding.
On September 14, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran and Oman still had to decide how their finalized understanding would be announced or registered.
Iran’s linkage of broader reopening to U.S. concessions adds an external obstacle beyond bilateral negotiations.
On September 19, Hassan Ghashghavi said Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepted and fulfilled Iran’s conditions.

Points to YES

Iran publicly says it has already agreed with Oman on a Hormuz reopening plan.
On September 16, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran and Oman had reached agreement on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations have produced concrete operational proposals rather than only general diplomatic language.
On August 25, Oman and Iran officially discussed a phased temporary navigation corridor, joint mine-clearing, traffic management, information sharing, and maritime services.

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