Golden State Valkyries100vs.Dallas Wings won108

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Sep 28 forecast

Golden State swept Dallas and suppressed its offense throughout the season, so Dallas is a meaningful underdog to win the September 30 game.

The visible evidence leans against Dallas: Golden State swept all three regular-season meetings, held Dallas well below its normal scoring level and led Game 1 by 27 at halftime. Golden State also brings the league’s strongest defense and deepest bench. Dallas remains live because it hosts the game after a strong finish and has enough high-end scoring to produce an upset.

Points to NO

Golden State consistently controlled this matchup during the regular season.
By August 17, Golden State had swept three meetings with Dallas by an average margin of 12.3 points.
Golden State’s defense poses an unusually difficult matchup for Dallas.
Figures published September 26 showed Golden State allowed 75.1 points per game, 7.6 fewer than any other team.
The latest available Game 1 evidence reinforced Golden State’s matchup advantage.
On September 27, Golden State led Dallas 58-31 at halftime of Game 1.

Points to YES

Dallas has performed strongly at home this season.
Dallas carried a 16-6 home record into Game 2 at College Park Center.
Dallas entered the playoffs with strong late-season momentum.
By September 24, Dallas had won seven of its final eight regular-season games.

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