Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $85 in September?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket64¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

WTI remains above $85 amid bullish supply shocks, but nearby-contract weakness and a month-long window make a touch of $85 or lower favored.

The visible evidence currently leans against a September breach: WTI began the month above $85, rallied sharply, and remains supported by severe Middle East supply disruptions. A breach is nevertheless favored because the rule requires only one qualifying one-minute low over the remaining month, WTI traded below $85 immediately before September, and the November contract is already much closer to the threshold. No supplied Pyth observation confirms that $85 has been reached during the September window.

Points to YES

The lower November contract could narrow the distance to $85 after it becomes active.
On September 3, 2026, the November WTI contract traded as low as $86.80, versus $89.57 for the October contract.
WTI has shifted into a short-term bearish setup below $90.
On September 3, 2026, Itai Levitan identified a bearish setup below $90 with successive downside targets extending to $86.33.
OPEC+'s September production increase adds fresh downside pressure to crude prices.
On August 25, 2026, OPEC+ approved a September production increase of 188,000 barrels per day.

Points to NO

WTI's early-September lows remain several dollars above the $85 threshold.
On September 3, 2026, FT historical data recorded a WTI low of $89.57.
Severe disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to support a large supply-risk premium.
On September 1, 2026, Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic was below 3% of its level before the February attacks on Iran.

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