Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi38¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO62¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin sits just below $78,500 with hours remaining, so an August 31 settlement at or above the threshold is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin is only 0.36% below the strike, so a qualifying rebound remains plausible. Yet the settlement-basis price is $78,215.17 with 6.4 hours left, and most contemporaneous exchange readings were below $78,500 after a macro-driven pullback and ETF outflows. Above-threshold prints and an August 31 high of $79,316.05 keep the outcome live, but an August 31 settlement at or above $78,500 is a meaningful underdog.

Points to NO

Most contemporaneous exchange prices were below $78,500, placing Bitcoin on the wrong side of the threshold.
At 10:40–10:42 UTC on August 31, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini, Binance and several other exchanges last traded below $78,500.
Fresh ETF outflows and a sharp pullback indicate weaker near-term demand.
On August 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $202 million in outflows as Bitcoin fell to $77,588 after the Federal Reserve chair's Jackson Hole speech.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has traded above the threshold today, showing that another qualifying move remains within its recent range.
At 10:19:46 UTC on August 31, Kraken reported Bitcoin at $78,665.

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